A debate has broken out in the shadow blogo-video-sphere over whether the U.S. and Israel are/are not headed for a shooting—or, more accurately, bombing—war with Iran.
On the NO side, experts point to the multiple reasons why neither
side should want a major blow-up in West Asia.
—Iran has steadfastly avoided war despite repeated provocations. Its economy is in the crapper already, and the Iranian leadership knows the terrible destruction a full-scale attack could inflict on the country.
—The U.S. under the new regime is trying to get out of one war and hardly needs another. The economic fallout of a disruption of Middle East oil supplies is scarcely imaginable.
—Despite hot-headed rhetoric on both sides, diplomatic feelers are being extended, according to consistent reports (including from Steve Witkoff, Trump’s personal envoy). Trump’s bombast is so familiar that people tend to dismiss it as carnival barking. Iran’s head mullah is dismissive but always leaves the door slightly ajar.
—Russia and China absolutely do not want a blow-up, which would cause them great harm. China would face severe energy shortages without its supplies from the Gulf. Its brokering of the 2023 Saudi-Iranian reconciliation was designed to cool everyone’s jets for the same reason. War is the last thing they want.
Noteworthy among all these reasonable arguments is the fact
that they are, well, reasonable. Since when has reason played a leading role in
our world and especially that part of it? Much more dominant are zealotry,
sectarian rage, imperial meddling, and plain bloody-mindedness.
Trump already has started his own personal war, the one in Yemen, that he promises will last “a long time.” The Signalgate kerfluffle around the stupid leaking of real-time war plans to a reporter obscures the more important fact that once again the U.S. has embarked on an undeclared war.
For decades Iran has been the prize boogeyman and target of the U.S. neocon cabal and their Israeli buddies. Gen. Wesley Clark told a now-notorious story in his memoirs about being shown secret Pentagon war plans to attack seven Muslim states in the region after 9/11: Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Sudan. A quick review of the list shows that at least five of these planned wars have occurred. (Sudan is locked in a civil war, so maybe that counts as well.) Why not go 7 for 7?
Israel’s enemy countries list always featured Iran above all
others. Many war-loving officials in both Washington and Jerusalem think this
is their big chance.
Religious fervor doesn’t intersect with prudent decision-making. Trump’s considerable base among Christian fanatics think wars in Israel will usher in the Apocalypse, the return of Jesus Christ, and the Rapture. If you see piles of unattended clothes scattered in the streets, it’s time to convert!
Israel has its own religious nutbags. According to former U.K. diplomat Alistair Crooke, many Israelis believe world Jewry must suffer through severe tribulations before the Messiah touches down. War with Iran fits their eschatological worldview.
Sober thinking about what might be in a country’s self-interest
presumes facts not in evidence—that people aren’t drunk on their belief
systems. Overheated rhetoric emanating from the White House could be “good
television,” as Trump likes to say. Or, it could be taken seriously with
drastic consequences. Some historians think Egyptian President Nasser’s florid
rhetoric provided Israel with the needed excuse for the 1967 attack that redrew
the region’s boundaries.
Wars often start from accidental triggers, lit matches
tossed onto dry kindling. That’s why real diplomats worry about things like military
buildups on sensitive borders, cheap verbal belligerence, or reneging on agreed
deals. Provocative military preparations and demagogically ratcheting up
tensions to play to the domestic audience can unintentionally spark fanatics on either side to
take fateful steps that unleash real shit.
We can think that cautious heads will prevail, but there's no guarantee of that. Bluster and public wand-waxing are great fun as long as there
are no consequences, but they prepare the ground for nasty surprises. And wars
are much easier to start than to stop.
Many experts agree with former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar
that “talk of a US-Iran war is all a load of baloney.” How many deadly wars have been preceded by just such confident dismissals?