Saturday 28 August 2021

Episode 1, Page 1, Upper Left-Hand Corner: Afghanistan



“Any post-mortem on ‘what went wrong in Afghanistan’ that does not include a root cause of dysfunction within the United States government is missing the cause of the disaster that the Global War on Terror has become. Afghanistan is a political failure, it is a policy failure, it is a military failure, and it is a human failure. A United States that cannot conduct conflict resolution within its own government can neither project nor maintain a coherent foreign policy to the rest of the world.”

—Andrew Donaldson, “The rootcause of the Afghanistan crisis? U.S. domestic politics,” Diplomatic Courier, Aug 21, 2021 

*

“There is a more important question that keeps coming up, whether it’s [Afghanistan], the Boeing 737 Max, opioids, Covid mismanagement, or anything else of social importance. Do we have the competence to govern ourselves anymore? Will this loss spur genuine reform of our McKinsey-ified elites who failed so spectacularly? None of these tens of thousands of Ivy League-encrusted, PR-savvy, highly credentialed prestigious people actually know how to do anything useful. They can write books on leadership, or do PowerPoints, or leak stories. But the hard logistics of actually using resources to achieve something important are foreign to them. The people who are in charge of the governing institutions in our society are simply divorced from the underlying logistics of what makes them work.”

—Matt Stoller, “The war in Afghanistan is what happens whenMcKinsey types run everything,” BIG, Aug 27, 2021

*

“Receiving less attention than this disaster, but also revealing an utter lack of senior leader accountability, is our surrendering a modern weapons arsenal to the Taliban. To date, the senior officials responsible for handing our enemy millions of dollars of weaponry have faced less adverse consequence than my soldiers and I received for losing an inert piece of plastic worth less than $100. In fact, if the past is precedent, many of the architects of this catastrophic failure will soon enjoy corporate board perches from which to make small fortunes while also making frequent guest appearances on cable news. In this breathtaking lack of accountability, our Afghanistan mission mirrors the society from which it emerged. There is a yawning disconnect between the accountability that we enforce on those occupying the lower rungs of society while our ruling class continues to show a remarkable ability to ‘fail up.’”

—Will Bardenwerper, “The breathtakinglack of official accountability in Afghanistan,” Responsible Statecraft,” Aug 25, 2021 

*

“The Taliban have seized U.S. military biometrics devices that could aid in the identification of Afghans who assisted coalition forces. Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment (HIIDE) devices contain iris scans and fingerprints as well as biographical information and are used to access large centralized databases.”

—Ken Klippenstein & Sara Sirota, “The Taliban have seizedU.S. military biometrics devices,” The Intercept, Aug 17 2021 

*

“On a visit to Moscow in 2018, a high officer of the Duma told me that Russia’s post-Soviet recovery began with the decision in 1992 to cut military spending by 75%, clearing the way for eventual domestic reconstruction, and even for the creation of a military force that actually meets Russia’s contemporary security needs. A similar moment has arrived in the US. Given the current American mood and the truths now emerging, to accept the world as it is might also prove to be, of all things, politically astute. This is the moment to acknowledge that the country’s vast and expensive military power no longer serves any purpose that can justify its cost.”

—James K. Galbraith, “Afghanistanwas always about American politics,” Project Syndicate, Aug 20, 2021 

*

“Afghans did not reject us. They looked to us as exemplars of democracy and the rule of law. They thought that’s what we stood for. And what did we stand for? Cronyism, rampant corruption, a Ponzi scheme disguised as a banking system, a government system where billionaires get to write the rules. In 2011 an interagency process reached the decision that the U.S. would not address corruption in Afghanistan. It was now explicit policy to ignore one of the two factors that would determine the fate of all our efforts.”

—former NPR reporter who then stayed in Afghanistan for 10 years Sarah Cheyes, interviewed on PBS, “The U.S. ignoredcorruption within the Afghan government. Did that lead to its fall?” PBS News Hour, Aug 20, 2021

*

“That extremists were able to gain an early foothold in rural regions is also due in part to the massive corruption in the capital and the numerous military operations carried out by NATO and its Afghan allies. Drone attacks and brutal nightly raids regularly caused numerous civilian casualties in Afghan villages. Many survivors shifted their support to the Taliban as result.”

—Emran Feroz, "Why the West failed to understand Afghanistan," DW (Deutsche World), Aug 23, 2021

*

“An American F-16 aircraft had come out of a clear blue sky and dropped a Mk82 500-pound bomb on Orifa’s mud, stone and straw house. Orifa was away at the time. When she returned, she gathered the body parts. Months later, a group of Americans came from Kabul and gave her an envelope with fifteen notes: a total of 15 dollars. ‘Two dollars for each of my family killed,’ she said.”

—John Pilger, “The story of US-led collusion in razingAfghanistan to the ground,” InDepthNews, Aug 25, 2021 

*

“The U.S. government has now spent 20 years and $145 billion trying to rebuild Afghanistan, its security forces, civilian government institutions, economy, and civil society. The Department of Defense (DOD) has also spent $837 billion on warfighting. The extraordinary costs were meant to serve a purpose—though the definition of that purpose kept changing evolved over time. While there have been several areas of improvement—most notably in the areas of health care, maternal health, and education—progress has been elusive and the prospects for sustaining this progress are dubious.”

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), “What we need to learn: Lessons from twenty yearsof Afghanistan reconstruction,” Aug, 2021 

*

“On the weekend of August 14, German diplomats routinely driving through Kabul’s diplomatic quarter noted an oddity. US soldiers who usually keep guard had abandoned the compound. The Germans also noticed that the road to the international airport, normally secured by American troops, was also undefended. They called around to Western colleagues and learned that the US had withdrawn the forces to their own embassy. Only the next day did US diplomats inform their allies that they, too, should leave the so-called Green Zone and head to the airport, as the Americans were already doing.”

—Daniel Williams, “Biden’s US-first approach leaves NATO in thelurch,” Asia Times, Aug 23, 2021

*

“The UK knowingly entered a subordinate military arrangement with the US in Afghanistan such that the final decision to withdraw wasn’t even contingent on any ‘consultation’ with UK officials. Oddly, the basic powerlessness of a scenario where the US President can make an operational decision in Afghanistan and the UK has no choice but to follow suit never seems to have bothered [former PM Theresa] May or her like-minded colleagues at any point in the 20 years prior to August 2021. Conspicuously missing from these Parliamentary outcries is any awareness that choosing to become an inert, emasculated appendage of the US is the thing that really appears to have doomed ‘Global Britain.’

“It’s also unclear whether [critics are] familiar with the US government’s own top auditor reporting that widows of dead Afghan National Army soldiers had to give sexual favors to God-knows-who in order to receive their dead husbands’ pensions. Oddly, this never roused the passions of these sudden defenders of Afghan women, back when the US was an active combatant in the war with the UK as its obedient understudy.”

—Michael Tracey, “British melodrama over Afghanistan withdrawalmasks their own impotence and irrelevance,” MT [blog], Aug 25, 2021 

*

Christina Zhao, “Chinese state medias mock U.S. over Afghanistan:‘Smoother than presidential transition,’” Newsweek, Aug 15, 2021 

*

“Sens. Jack Reed (Armed Services), Mark Warner (Intelligence), and Robert Menendez (Foreign Affairs) are piling on the frenzy in Washington. These same senators’ reactions to the Washington Post’s investigation in December 2019—dubbed the ‘Afghanistan Papers’—which found that senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan? Reed, Warner, and Menendez said very little about the Post’s findings.”

—Ben Armbruster, “Senators nowinvestigating Biden’s withdrawal were mum on ‘Afghanistan Papers,’” Responsible Statecraft, Aug 20, 2021 

*

“More than a generation ago, Afghanistan won its freedom, which the United States, Britain and their allies destroyed. ‘Every girl could go to high school and university. We could go where we wanted and wear what we liked. We used to go to cafes and the cinema to see the latest Indian films on a Friday. It all started to go wrong when the mujahedin started winning; these were the people the West supported.’ In the 1980s, I made contact with the Revolutionary Association of the Women of Afghanistan, known as RAWA, which had tried to alert the world to the suffering of Afghan women. During the Taliban time they concealed cameras beneath their burqas to film evidence of atrocities and did the same to expose the brutality of the Western-backed mujahedin. ‘Marina’ of RAWA told me, ‘We took the videotape to all the main media groups, but they didn’t want to know.’ Now, they do.”

—John Pilger, “The great game of smashing countries," ARENA, Aug 25, 2021 

*

“It is really something to watch this town attempt to absolve itself from two decades of jingoism, profiteering, barely existent oversight, and zero accountability by suddenly demanding answers about Afghanistan.”

—Matt Duss, foreign policy advisor to Bernie Sanders

*

No doubt if Trump had followed through on his stated desire to finally end the war, the chaotic scenes emerging out of Kabul would have been portrayed as somehow part-and-parcel of his secret desire to upend the American-led world order at the behest of Vladimir Putin. The media outrage would have been even more apocalyptic and frothingly conspiratorial. Although the media’s affinities are largely against Trump and largely for Biden, both still attract hyper-animosity when they seek to end wars.”

—Michael Tracey, “Ignore the fake ‘experts’—The real ‘catastrophe’ in Afghanistan was alwaysthe war itself,” MT [blog], Aug 17, 2021 

*

“From the outset, America and its allies embraced—and never reconsidered—a top-down state-building strategy that was always destined to fail. The assumption is that if you can establish overwhelming military dominance over a territory and subdue all other sources of power, you can then impose your will. Yet in most places, this theory is only half right, at best; in Afghanistan, it was dead wrong. Most states have been constructed not by force but by compromise and cooperation. In this model, the state is not imposed on a society against its wishes; rather, state institutions build legitimacy by securing a modicum of popular support.”

—Daron Acemoglu, “Why nation-building failed in Afghanistan,” Project Syndicate, Aug 20, 2021 

*

“Some will say, they didn't fight! They get what they deserve! To which I say, ‘And what do we deserve?’” A fractious country comprised of warring tribes, unable to form an inclusive whole; unable to wade beyond shallow differences in sect and identity in order to provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to themselves and their posterity, and so they perish—in the span of a breath—without ever reaching the promised shore.” [He’s not talking about Afghanistan.]

Edward Snowden, “A hell ofour own making,” Continuing Ed, Aug 17, 2021 

*

“The global wealth and influence of the United States was so great that it could simply afford a 20-year campaign with no practical value.”

—Andrey Shusentsov, “How much is experience worth? Twenty years of US experiments in theMiddle East,” Valdai Discussion Club, Aug 18, 2021 

*

“They were careless people. They smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness, letting others clean up the mess they had made.”

—F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby

*

[written before the Afghanistan collapse] “Potential adversaries have spent 30 years watching and learning from U.S. operations. Any reasonably intelligent counterparty would pay attention to what the U.S. has been doing and then figure out what to expect and how to deal with it. Come the next real war, U.S. forces won’t own space or the skies. Won’t run the electromagnetic spectrum. Won’t have unfettered communications. Won’t control logistics. Won’t have good targeting data. Won’t have air supremacy, let alone sea supremacy or undersea dominance. And many of the expensive weapon systems simply won’t work in the degraded environment. It took an internal wargame in the Department of Defense to illustrate the problem such that no less than one of the most senior generals in the military came out of the closet to admit that America’s super-expensive military complex can’t win the next big war.”

—Byron W. King, “‘It failed miserably’—What if the US losta war and nobody noticed?” Whiskey & Gunpowder, Jul 29, 2021 https://bit.ly/3zprrsI 


Friday 6 August 2021

Dysfunction and Decline: An Impersonal Essay


I was driving back from a Bernie rally in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, in February of last year when President Trump came on the radio breezily predicting that the Covid outbreak, then consisting of 15 identified cases, was “completely under control” and would soon be history. This sounded overconfident even with the little we knew at the time. But what struck me was the former president’s hypnotically persuasive style. His worldview was so carefree, self-assured, and emphatic that it felt almost churlish to resist his imperious optimism.

Six hundred-plus thousand deaths later, the former chief executive would have no problem revarnishing that moment if confronted with his own words, perhaps by casting the blame far and wide for what went wrong or maybe by shifting the discussion to his (quite real) successes with the vaccine rollout. In fact, the pivot in public identification of the vaccine as a Trumpian triumph to an oppressive Biden-led power grab is one of the many bizarre manifestations of life in Covidland.

In the highly charged political atmosphere surrounding everything Covid—indeed everything about everything—we all have our favored punching bags, our designated bad guys. Some of us have identified heroes or heroines as well, voices in the wilderness whose warnings we believe clearly were vindicated by subsequent events. That’s not especially troubling in itself; people will disagree about things. However, the idea that we could have a meeting of the minds of any sort around what has happened, is happening, or should happen is frankly inconceivable—that is problematic. The point of public life today is that everything is their fault, whoever “they” happens to be for each. The idea of joint action as a nation around Covid or anything else is fast becoming a taboo; those in charge should be worried at this sign of chronic, organic dysfunction.

Despite what we’ve learned at such painful cost, a future outbreak isn’t likely to be handled much better. In this I dissent from Michael Lewis’s conclusion as aired on “60 Minutes” a few days ago in a segment on his recent book, The Premonition. Lewis, also the author of The Big Short about the great financial meltdown of 2008, spins a series of fascinating secondary tales in the new book about the seemingly endless pandemic.

Lewis is a highly successful commercial author, and you don’t get there by being a Debbie Downer. In the film version of The Big Short, the Christian Bale character sees the future and walks away with a cool billion, a sort of happy ending if you’re Christian Bale rather than a newly homeless lady in Baltimore. In The Premonition, Lewis stays upbeat by concluding that the unsung champions of the Covid debacle, the ones whom Trump, the CDC, and most state governors ignored, have showed us how to do it better next time. No doubt they have, but so what? We still agree on nothing, including that. 

One half of the country considers Trump’s eerie capacity to redraw the parameters of reality for his tens of millions of followers as a worrisome legacy of his scattershot presidency. An important corollary implicitly held by the other half is that there is a more real reality in there or out there somewhere, if we could just get to it, find it, agree on it, and from there settle on how to act upon it. This is Pollyannish, misguided, and equally delusional. It presumes that Trump introduced fantasy to our polity and ruined functional governing structures that, without his malign presence, would have let us do things right.

We’ve seen this Manichean mindset play out repeatedly over the course of the pandemic. For example, the CDC’s Nancy Messonnier drew Trump’s wrath early on when she finally blurted out that Americans should prepare for “when” rather than “if” coronavirus would bring mass illness and death to the country. Trump had a cow over that, and promptly Messonnier became a symbol of courage and sobriety as an apostle of The Science. Instead, as Lewis’s book shows, she was part of a sputtering, wheezing CDC bureaucracy that had been burying its head in the sand for weeks while medical providers and local public health officials tried to sound the alarm. One wag quoted in the book renames the CDC the Center for Disease Monitoring and Observation that couldn’t “control” a disease outbreak if it happened in the office next door.

The dysfunction goes far beyond Messonnier’s personal qualities or qualifications. The agency was politicized way back during the Reagan era when its head was made a presidential appointee rather than a protected, career civil servant (like Fauci, whom Trump could not axe). It had already lost ground due to the swine flu vaccine debacle of 1976, the last time the CDC responded energetically to a possible problem—that never materialized. On that occasion, CDC leaders saw a potential epidemic unfolding and acted on the precautionary principle. In other words, they did what a public health authority should do, and a sane polity would have appreciated the protective caution after grumbling and venting about the inconvenience and collateral harm. But because we have no capacity as a nation for social solidarity or sacrifice, the epidemic-that-wasn’t quickly became another club in the arsenal against all things governmental, and the stage was set for Reagan, the anti-government warrior par excellence, to then make sure that a real epidemic—AIDS—was ignored.

So much for the CDC, but the problem goes even deeper. What institution now commands enough general credibility in the nation that its leaders could call upon us to sacrifice or put up with discomforts and burdens in the spirit of shared social goals or, to cast it in archaic language, to “promote the general welfare”? New York’s subway and bus workers have a shockingly low vaccination rate, according to The City. When asked why they are reluctant, many of the employees—half of whom are minorities—said they didn’t trust their bosses at the MTA, reminding the reporter that no one did anything to get them protective equipment at the height of the epidemic when hundreds of their colleagues died. I think they’re being short-sighted, but they’re not irrational.

We’re #1 

One of the most peculiar aspects of this sustained display of national incapacity is that, despite it, we retain our assumptions about the place our country occupies. We remain stuck in the triumphal post-WW2 moment and cannot recognize that things have fundamentally changed. Our political class insists, and we nod along out of habit, that the USA remains preeminent, the essential nation, the standard-setter, the rule-maker, the final authority. We still expect to explain to everyone how people should live and to be the model of what others should strive for and emulate.

We remain convinced that everyone wants to be us, failing that, to be like us. Despite our creeping recognition that not all is well here, we have been successfully brainwashed to believe that American “interests” extend to all corners of the globe where American influence or perhaps control should, as a matter of course, be accepted as right, fitting, and necessary. These postulates survive through another form of hypnotic insistence, and it has nothing to do with Trumpian hyperbole. (In fact, Trump was dismissive of many aspects of empire, especially anything that got in the way of his businesses.)

Our leaders regularly gulp their own Kool-Aid and seem not to notice its lack of nutritious components. Hardly anyone pays much attention to U.S. diplomatic activity unless it’s a media-led focus on some enemy du jour, like Iran, Venezuela, Russia, or China. We should. Trump’s foreign policy apparatus was a clown-show amateur hour, but Biden’s is not much of an improvement. Both teams operated under the assumption that the U.S. is in charge, lectures others what they’re doing wrong, and expects them to behave or face retaliation. A good recent example was Wendy Sherman, Biden’s No. 2 at State, embarrassing us in China by playing schoolmarm with the Chinese foreign minister; her boss Anthony Blinken bombed in Anchorage several months ago trying to do the same thing.

Sherman, who has no experience in Asia, has never lived there, speaks no Asian language, and doesn’t know diddly-squat about the continent, wormed her into an inappropriate meeting with the Chinese foreign minister (she’s not his equal in rank) and proceeded to trot out Beltway talking points as if her audience were pimply congressional interns in a summer program at the Atlantic Council. The Scrum‘s Patrick Lawrence summarized her bizarre performance: “We want to knee you in the groin on questions of this that, and the other, those things that are useful for our propaganda ops as we wage a new cold war against you, but we want to cooperate on climate change and other sorts of virtue-signaling matters. 

Lawrence opined: “Berating the Chinese as just enumerated is not a China policy: it is an admission the Biden regime cannot figure out anything that would even resemble a China policy.” It was also, he adds, a telltale sign of weakness.

The Chinese had something to say in reply two days later:

“The United States always wants to exert pressure on other countries by virtue of its own strength, thinking that it is superior to others. If the United States has not learned to get along with other countries on an equal footing by now, then it is our responsibility, together with the international community, to give the U.S. a good tutorial in this regard.”

If we’re not taken aback by the idea of a Chinese “tutorial” coming along soon, we should be. The entire Washington establishment seems dangerously lost in its own propaganda bubble and has not recognized that 2021 is not 1945 nor 1990. Like Sherman, our diplomats as a matter of course insult their counterparts, convinced that America is the only game in town and that no one remembers how the U.S. (with Biden’s full backing) played first century Roman emperor by trying to conquer Iraq.  


Speaking of Roman emperors, how else can we understand the temple complex underway in Chicago to glorify the reign of a former monarch? Like Trajan’s Column or the Arch of Titus, the Obama Presidential Center (NOT “Library”—an important distinction) will arise on 20 privatized acres of public parkland and will be owned by the Obama Foundation, not the National Archives. Trump should float his own project to build something similar on 20 acres of repurposed Central Park territory—I think it would fit nicely in Sheep’s Meadow. Chicago gave the Obama Foundation a tax-free, 99-year lease on the parkland for $10 while the OPC will charge fees for entry, parking, and third-party use with the profits to go to the Obama Foundation. All hail.

We are headed to a very rude awakening that could well happen, like bankruptcy, “little by little and then all at once.” The overconfident Americans continue to go off half-cocked into ill-considered diplomatic, political, and military adventures, and it’s only a matter of time until they get their asses handed to them. Meanwhile, nowhere are seen any adults in the room, any sober realists tugging at the emperor’s sleeve to suggest that perhaps the legions might not win this time. America is #1, has always been #1, and will remain #1.  

American spokespeople insist that democracy is stronger and more adaptable than authoritarian alternatives while we proceed to provide evidence to the contrary. Depending on who is up and who is down, policy zigzags unpredictably; the country appears run by competing warlords (a scenario the Chinese know well). When the truth finally cannot be ignored any longer, the traumatic shock will make our various Covid neuroses feel like a mosquito bite. From all appearances, then and only then will we be tempted to see each other as fellow citizens.


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