Three simultaneous wars are underway in Ukraine.
The current score is: 1-1-1: one win, one loss, one stalemate.
The information war
The U.S. is winning the war for the narrative hands down. The
entire western hemisphere sees Russia as an unprovoked aggressor invading a weak,
sovereign neighbor and concurs that it is an outrageous act that jeopardizes world
peace. The crushing repudiation of the Russians at the United Nations this week
is an apt expression of that consensus.
It is no accident that the country that essentially invented
advertising and public relations (the U.S.) should excel at shaping the terms
of public debate and public emotion. The Russians are rank amateurs and have
paid almost no attention to the art of convincing others of their case, probably
assuming that it was a lost cause. They must therefore fall back upon facts on
the ground.
The ground war
Which is exactly where everything is unfolding as Russia anticipated
with some minor surprises of the sort that are inevitable in war. Tales of
Ukrainian resistance and valor will be short-lived. The much-discussed delays
in the Russian advance are likely more to do with their decision to destroy as
little as possible of Ukraine so that the parts not to be absorbed into the
Russian sphere can recover rapidly. The optimistic tales emanating from the
informational apparatus [see above] are mostly wishful thinking. The Americans
predicted that the war would occur and announced that NATO would not be able to
stop it. They were right.
The economic war
This one is a stalemate, and we should not start filling in
our scorecards for at least six months to a year. Russia is not Iran, which
could be (and was) kicked around and driven into penury by economic warfare,
boycotts, and direct and third-party sanctions. In this case, however, many tools
are available to Russia for retaliation. The extraordinary move to sanction the
Russian central bank and freeze (or seize) its assets will have consequences.
As long as there is a chance of ratcheting down the hostilities and limiting
the damage, Russia may hold off. On the other hand, if de-escalation is not on
the horizon, that war—unlike the bombs and mortar shells—may hit us directly.
