Three Wars

 

Three simultaneous wars are underway in Ukraine.

The current score is: 1-1-1: one win, one loss, one stalemate.

The information war

The U.S. is winning the war for the narrative hands down. The entire western hemisphere sees Russia as an unprovoked aggressor invading a weak, sovereign neighbor and concurs that it is an outrageous act that jeopardizes world peace. The crushing repudiation of the Russians at the United Nations this week is an apt expression of that consensus.

It is no accident that the country that essentially invented advertising and public relations (the U.S.) should excel at shaping the terms of public debate and public emotion. The Russians are rank amateurs and have paid almost no attention to the art of convincing others of their case, probably assuming that it was a lost cause. They must therefore fall back upon facts on the ground.

The ground war

Which is exactly where everything is unfolding as Russia anticipated with some minor surprises of the sort that are inevitable in war. Tales of Ukrainian resistance and valor will be short-lived. The much-discussed delays in the Russian advance are likely more to do with their decision to destroy as little as possible of Ukraine so that the parts not to be absorbed into the Russian sphere can recover rapidly. The optimistic tales emanating from the informational apparatus [see above] are mostly wishful thinking. The Americans predicted that the war would occur and announced that NATO would not be able to stop it. They were right.

The economic war

This one is a stalemate, and we should not start filling in our scorecards for at least six months to a year. Russia is not Iran, which could be (and was) kicked around and driven into penury by economic warfare, boycotts, and direct and third-party sanctions. In this case, however, many tools are available to Russia for retaliation. The extraordinary move to sanction the Russian central bank and freeze (or seize) its assets will have consequences. As long as there is a chance of ratcheting down the hostilities and limiting the damage, Russia may hold off. On the other hand, if de-escalation is not on the horizon, that war—unlike the bombs and mortar shells—may hit us directly.