On the Doorsteps of the Carolinians, part 2

Polls have shown Joe Biden enjoying a major spike just hours before South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary even before an endorsement by the influential leader of the state Democrats, James Clyburn, the third-ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives.

If the surveys prove to be accurate, South Carolina Democrats (60% of whom are African-American) will turn out to support a prime mover of the Draconian federal crime bill of 1994, friend of segregationist stalwarts like James Stennis, Strom Thurmond, and Jesse Helms, enabler of credit card usury and restrictions of debt relief through bankruptcy, and cheerleader for the Iraq and other foreign wars for which black service personnel are prime cannon fodder.

But no matter! Clyburn [pharmaceutical industry donations $1.09 million over 10 years] invoked the Obama years when Biden basked in the reflected glory, and that’s enough for many voters here who are surprisingly disconnected from the electoral process unlike, for example, the Iowans who generally revel in the attention paid to them every four years. In our rounds through a variety of neighborhoods here in the 7th Congressional District (Florence, Myrtle Beach), we have found that a good number of people have only a vague idea of what is taking place tomorrow. For example, it’s not unusual for respondents to promise to go to the polls and cast a vote for “the Democrat” as if the contest were the general election eight months away rather than a primary to decide who “the Democrat” should be.

We’re told that people here are culturally resistant to disclosing their voting preferences and for good reason given the long history of voter suppression and general hostility from organs of the state. (We’ve had the cops called on us for canvassing, as have at least two other teams in Myrtle Beach.) So some of the “undecideds” may in fact be people who don’t support Bernie and simply don’t want to be rude, in local terms, by saying they like someone else.

Nevertheless, Sanders has a substantial following in the state, especially among young and educated voters, unlike four years ago when Hillary dominated among African-Americans. There's some support for him when we hit more rural and poorer neighborhoods though the voters who have a clear idea of how his politics diverge from the rest of the field are in the minority.

That said, our conversations with dozens of potential voters suggest that a whole lot of people are simply going to make their final decision only when they walk into the voting booth. That weakens all informed predictions, including those of the pollsters. More importantly, it outlines where the social movement that Bernie hopes to stimulate and lead has its work cut out for it. Our local informants say that South Carolina doesn’t have a tradition of the kinds of social and advocacy organizations that could channel the many demands that these marginalized and ignored communities could make to improve their conditions. That's a task for the other 365 days of the year.

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